Sunday, June 15, 2025

To calculation

 


R₀ (R-naught) doesn’t change just because we start with more cases — it’s a constant for that pathogen in that environment.





✍️ Key Takeaways in Simple Form:



  • Incidence = new cases over time.
  • More original infections = faster rise in incidence.
  • But the R₀ stays the same, no matter how many people start out sick.
  • You might see a “spike” in cases if you start with more infected people.


Slide Question:



“What do you think would happen to the incidence of chlamydia in our class if there were two original infections instead of 1?”

How about 10?





🧠 Concept Explained Simply:



This is a thought experiment about R₀ (basic reproduction number) and incidence:


  • If 1 person infects 2 people → total of 3 infected
  • If 2 people infect 4 → total of 6
  • If 10 people infect 20 → total of 30



This assumes an R₀ of 2 (each person infects 2 others).

So, more starting infections = faster spread = higher incidence.


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