R₀ (R-naught) doesn’t change just because we start with more cases — it’s a constant for that pathogen in that environment.
✍️ Key Takeaways in Simple Form:
- Incidence = new cases over time.
- More original infections = faster rise in incidence.
- But the R₀ stays the same, no matter how many people start out sick.
- You might see a “spike” in cases if you start with more infected people.
Slide Question:
“What do you think would happen to the incidence of chlamydia in our class if there were two original infections instead of 1?”
How about 10?
🧠 Concept Explained Simply:
This is a thought experiment about R₀ (basic reproduction number) and incidence:
- If 1 person infects 2 people → total of 3 infected
- If 2 people infect 4 → total of 6
- If 10 people infect 20 → total of 30
This assumes an R₀ of 2 (each person infects 2 others).
So, more starting infections = faster spread = higher incidence.
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